By Richard Garwin (auth.), Professor Dr. Joseph Rotblat, Professor John P. Holdren (eds.)
1989 was once by way of any criteria a unprecedented 12 months: the yr during which the chilly struggle ended. even if, even if a lot has replaced, a lot is still unresolved or now not replaced in any respect. although the reason for the large army forces has been faraway from the East-West dating, those forces nonetheless maintain a huge capability to do damage. additionally, threats to peace might develop alongside North-South and South-South axes. An instance of this type of possibility is the quick progress in dimension and class of army arsenals within the South. The contributions to this quantity make it transparent that the issues of East and West, North and South are inter- twined. safeguard will be received in simple terms via cooperation. The participants, who come from generally differing geographical, cultural and political backgrounds, all percentage the Pugwash culture of clinical objectivity.
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4. Risks of a First Strike The obstacles to agreement do not lie in the technical military field at all. There is a huge range of possible agrements, all of which would increase the security of both sides by reducing the military component of political relations. There is not some narrow path of reduction which is the only one which avoids the risk of a first strike by one side or the other. No United States or Soviet President (assuming that they stay sane) would order a first nuclear strategie strike against the other side, either now or during any of the very wide variety of fOutes to reduce the present deployment to a half.
From the Soviet point of view the problem is one of deciding which of these ideas will be accepted as elements of the US strategic planning and development, as weIl as selecting which are worth pursuing within their own R & D community. Another characteristic of the US defence policy is its intermittent nature. Because the responsibility for formulating and implementing US defence policy is split between Congress and the Executive branch, and because the time required for the development and procurement of almost aIl modem weapons systems is much longer than the "political rhythm" of both these branches, almost all such systems experience signifieant slow-downs and delays, and in many cases eaneeIlations, between the decision to be gin development and the actual deployment of the systems.
It has to be understood that there are several steps in the process of identifying indicators of possible attack in interpreting their significance and that, therefore, the term "false warning" is often applied very loosely and somewhat misleadingly to the initial stages of the process. An empirical study that found an apparent correlation between the US policymakers' perception of increased tension in US-Soviet relations and the frequency of TIrreat Evaluation Conferences in the NORAD cJI system was the subject of considerable discussion in the Workshop since it seems to lend support to concerns that "false warning" is more likely during a tense crisis.